This image is one of many shared on social media which claims to show debris from a US fighter jet
Could the fighter jet incident change public perception of the war?
I’ve spoken to two military analysts who say that while a US fighter jet being shot down over Iran is operationally not very significant, it could further galvanise the American public against the war.
“For people who have been arguing from the start that this war was a mistake, that this war was an unnecessary risk to US service members, it was an unnecessary use of US military power and a waste of US military resources – this is just the exclamation point on that argument,” says Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at the think tank Defence Priorities, which advocates for restraint in US foreign policy.
She says the incident makes walking away from the war now, at least in the immediate term, “essentially impossible politically for Trump”.
That’s because, she says, the US president needs something else to further underline his claims of victory, and “this is not it”.
James Jeffrey, a military strategy expert and fellow at think tank The Washington Institute says most Americans would say right now this incident makes them more upset about the war.
“This is really a concern because that’s how they feel,” Jeffrey says. “Americans love their service people more than most modern countries do.”
But, he says, public concern won’t affect how Trump handles the war or what steps he decides to take next.
Fallout from this incident is worse than initially thought for the US.
According to CBS reporting, citing two US officials, the fallout from this incident is worse than initially thought.
Not only did they say an F-15E was shot down this morning, but an A-10 Warthog aircraft that was part of the search and rescue mission for the downed jet was also shot and damaged.
The pilot from that ejected and was successfully recovered.
Two helicopters also took part in the rescue mission and retrieved the F-15E pilot who had ejected, but the search is continuing for the second crew member.
The helicopter carrying the rescued pilot was then hit by small arms fire, wounding crew members on board.
All of this indicates that, despite Donald Trump’s recent claims that there is nothing Iran can do about US aircraft in its skies, the dangers still very much exist.
Aircraft involved in F-15 rescue mission also came under fire – CBS
Two US aircraft involved in the rescue of the American F-15 fighter jet over Iran have also come under fire, according to two US officials speaking to CBS.
The BBC’s US partner reports that an A-10 Warthog taking part in the search and rescue was hit, with the pilot ejecting over the Gulf, where he was rescued.
Two helicopters were also involved in the search, rescuing one of the two F-15E airmen from the earlier crash, CBS says, and the helicopter carrying a recovered pilot was hit by small arms fire, injuring crew members on board. The helicopter landed safely, and the personnel are being treated.
CBS earlier reported that the F-15 was shot down early afternoon local time, but there have been conflicting reports about the timing.
The search is still reportedly under way for the second crew member, a weapon systems officer.
Israel holds off striking area where search operation under way – reports
Israel’s military has delayed strikes in the area of Iran where the search for the missing US fighter jet crew is under way, according to reports from CNN, the AP news agency and Israel’s Channel 12.
CNN says an Israeli official told the network that strikes had been postponed in the search area, while Channel 12, citing a senior Israeli official, reported the strikes had been cancelled. AP also reported that air strikes had been halted in relevant areas due to the rescue efforts.
AP says the Israeli official spoke to them on condition of anonymity “because the operation is ongoing”.
The Israel Defense Forces has not confirmed these reports
Iran shooting down a US aircraft was ‘only a matter of time’, experts say
I’ve just spoken to two military analysts, who say what’s most striking about Iran reportedly shooting down a US fighter jet is that it didn’t happen sooner.
“It was sort of inevitable,” says Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at think tank Defence Priorities.
It was only “a matter of time before there was some incident like this”, she says.
“We know that Iran has anti-aircraft weapons, and the idea that they had all been eliminated was quite hard to believe and likely inaccurate from the start,” she adds.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that Iran’s air capabilities have been obliterated.
James Jeffrey, a military strategy expert and fellow at think tank The Washington Institute also says it’s “amazing” that this is the first fighter jet Iran reportedly shot down.
But both Jeffrey and Kavanagh say that, in the grand scheme of the war, this incident matters very little.
While it’s “a big victory” for Iran to have shot down an American jet, for the US, losing a single aircraft “isn’t going to change the operational outcome of the war”, Kavanagh says.
Images appear to show debris from a US F-15E Strike Eagle
BBC Verify has spoken to an expert who confirms that debris in images widely circulating on social media has come from a US F-15E Strike Eagle.
The pieces shown are a wingtip and part of a vertical stabiliser from a plane from the US 494th Fighter Squadron based at RAF Lakenheath in the UK, according to Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology in the Military Sciences team at the Rusi think tank.
A reverse image search shows the images only began to circulate on social media today.
We cannot confirm where the images were taken, as they are close-ups, and there isn’t a clear sign that lets us geolocate them, but we have checked them for AI, and there are no signs of manipulation.
BBC
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